End Game

The most predictably shocking result in political history looks to be upon us:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/eu/5470823/European-elections-2009-Labour-facing-worst-ever-national-poll-results.html

The problem now is that dozens of Labour MPs will now not only fear for their seat but will know for certian that they will lose the next election. This will serve to create distracted elected officials, and render the next term of parliament nothing but a lame duck prelude to the election.

This creates a dilemma for the Tories, who in their heart of hearts need another 10 months to prepare for government, as this will allow them to see which way the economy is going and therefore plan their policies accordingly.

Is Labour's best chance therefore to remove Brown, steady the ship with Johnson and try and save a few seats; or, is it to see Brown take down the sinking ship, clear the deadwood and hope the inexperienced Tories don't make a major impact in their first term? This would then allow a new leader (like Milliband) to 'Cameron', Cameron.

It's an interesting theory. But if I were a 30-50 year old Labour MP, I would rather save my re-launch for Opposition, not the last throws of a Government exhausted by over a decade in power.